On Monday, May 12, USDA will release its May edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, taking another crack at old-crop demand estimates while simultaneously flipping the script to 2025-26 with new-crop forecasts. NASS also joins in on the fun with the May Crop Production report, which promises a detailed look into the imminent winter wheat harvests.

CORN

Following the release of the April WASDE report, which saw USDA reduce old-crop U.S. corn carryout by 75 million bushels (mb), July corn futures surged the next session within 3 cents of the elusive $5 level. Since then, however, July futures have managed just five positive sessions, as prices have retreated to their lowest levels of 2025 thus far. Better-than-expected pollination weather in Brazil as well as few issues in U.S. planting of the 95.3 million corn acres that are expected this spring have been the primary sources of pressure to prices.

For Monday, USDA will again look at old-crop corn demand. The gap between the current export pace and USDA's estimated increase in exports from 2023-24 remains evident. U.S. corn commitments are 27% ahead of where they were in early May 2024, as of May 1, 2025, with USDA expecting an 11% increase in total marketing-year exports. If we see a demand increase on the U.S. balance sheet, exports remain the likely area. If there is a demand category in risk of a cut, it is likely feed and residual, which was dropped by 25 mb in the April WASDE and is being dragged down by a yearly decline in grain-consuming animal units in the U.S. My personal 2024-25 ethanol corn usage estimate is lower than USDA's. But I expect, given the strong pace of ethanol production through April in weekly EIA updates, along with the most recent NASS Grain Crushings report showing total marketing-year ethanol grind up 0.6% yet from 2023-24, that USDA will leave this estimate unaltered for now. In Dow Jones' pre-report survey of 18 firms, the average estimate for ending corn stocks in the U.S. comes in at 1.444 billion bushels (bb), a decline of 21 mb from April if accurate. Trade guesses ranged from 1.385 bb to 1.515 bb, with most analysts expecting a stocks reduction.

Monday's report will also feature the first "official" look at USDA's balance sheet for 2025-26 U.S. corn. The Dow Jones survey is calling for a corn production estimate for 2025-26 of 15.8 bb. This would be a record corn harvest in the U.S. if accurate. Assuming the harvest percentage holds steady from 2024 and using the 95.3-million-acre USDA estimate, 15.8 bb of production would be assuming a yield of just over 181 bushels per acre (bpa). That is in line with USDA's Outlook Forum forecast, which would also be a record. To note, in the past 11 years, USDA has deviated from its February Outlook yield just once in the May WASDE, which was in 2022. Either way, the yield estimate is likely to gain some scrutiny, as USDA has overestimated corn yield in the May WASDE for six years running. As for ending stocks, assuming the Dow Jones estimates come to light, it is likely this production figure would lead to a sizeable stocks build in 2025-26, likely in the neighborhood of 1.8 bb to 2 bb, depending on how USDA sees demand, with the Dow Jones survey expecting north of 2 bb in stocks.

Lastly, USDA will also look at South American corn production. In Brazil, the wet season extended to normal timing with rains just starting to let up during the first week of May. This allowed much of the safrinha corn in Brazil to pollinate with little issue. In addition to good growing conditions, Brazilian agencies have noted larger corn acreage than initially expected, largely due to very good corn prices in Brazil in early 2025 when producers were making field decisions. In light of these events, analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect to see an increase in total Brazilian corn production to 127.1 million metric tons (mmt) on average, up from 126 mmt in April. Meanwhile, Argentine production is expected to hold steady at 50 mmt, although there may be a slight bias for a reduction here, as well, due to a few analysts based in Argentina currently lower on their estimates than USDA at closer to 49 mmt. On the world stage, corn ending stocks are expected to slightly drop yet again on Monday, with the average trade guess calling for a 300,000-mt cut to 287.4 mmt.

SOYBEANS

Over the month of April, soybean futures showed much more resiliency as compared to corn price, turning more-or-less sideways and choppy in action since the last WASDE release. The market may be sending a last-ditch signal to producers to buy more soybean acres amid the low USDA estimate from March 31.

For Monday, the old-crop soybean balance sheet is expected to be mostly steady. The Dow Jones analyst survey expects, on average, to see a 5-mb drop in soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 to 370 mb. Demand for old-crop soybeans has remained strong, with exports still trending slightly ahead of USDA's expected performance, and soybean crush steady at just over 5% ahead of 2023-24 through March. USDA increased its estimate of 2024-25 soybean crush in the April report by 10 mb, extending the already record volume if accurate.

Given the turbulent recent months marked by the onset of the second U.S. and China trade war, the new-crop soybean balance sheet is likely to receive the lion's share of attention for Monday. Firstly, USDA is estimating acreage at 83.5 million, the lowest since 2020 if true. USDA also unveiled a weather-adjusted trend yield of 52.5 bpa in February (a record if true). Assuming a five-year average harvest percentage of 98.8%, this would yield a total soybean production of 4.33 bb. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones are in agreement here with an average trade estimate of 4.325 bb. This would be about a 1% decline in production, year-over-year. An estimated decline in soybean production given the record-large trend line yield and USDA's recent history of overestimating on yield, would likely be viewed as a bullish development for U.S. soybeans. However, the elephant in the room is how USDA will view the demand picture. Thus far, crush pace gives us no reason to expect a drop off. But the emergence of what's essentially a trade embargo with China certainly would hamper soybean exports, which USDA forecast to be 1.865 bb in its February Outlook.

As for world soybeans, USDA will again focus in on South America, where Brazil is wrapping up a record-setting harvest. Argentina is also working to catch up on harvest pace, as rainfall has created delays there but also has potentially boosted yields. For Monday, the Dow Jones survey of analysts expects USDA to hold production unchanged in Brazil and very close to unchanged in Argentina. Both are holding what I would call a slight bias for higher estimates, especially in Argentina where yields have thus far been better than expected in some areas that had been very dry until late rains arrived. As a result, world soybean stocks are expected to rise slightly to 122.6 mmt, an increase of 100,000 mt if accurate.

WHEAT

Since the release of the April WASDE in which USDA further increased wheat ending stocks by 27 mb, wheat futures cratered. July Kansas City futures dropped to a new contract low of $5.25, clearing the previous contract low by more than 25 cents per bushel. The May WASDE will turn the page to new crop 2025-26 with historically low acreage estimated by USDA in March. But good rainfall through April has thus far improved winter wheat conditions in the U.S., adding further pressure on prices.

For Monday, the analysts surveyed by Dow Jones on average expect to see old-crop U.S. wheat stocks relatively unchanged, with the average trade guess coming in at 845 mb, compared to 846 mb in April. Wheat export pace for old crop remains worrisome, with shipments as of May 1 totaling 700 mb, leaving just one month to achieve 120 mb of shipments to hit the USDA goal of 820 mb in 2024-25. The import category is another one to keep an eye on. USDA has steadily increased import expectations throughout the marketing year. They currently stand at 150 mb, the largest wheat import year since 2017-18. The strengthening of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar in recent months has perhaps slowed down imports through the final quarter of the wheat marketing year.

With less than a month remaining in the 2024-25 marketing year, most traders will likely be more interested in how USDA estimates the situation for new-crop wheat. USDA estimated total wheat acreage at 45.4 million at the end of March, the second lowest since 1919 if accurate. The February Outlook Forum unveiled a wheat yield estimate of 50.1 bpa. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones estimated total wheat production on average to be 1.896 bb, which, using USDA's yield and acreage estimates, would be assuming a harvest percentage of 83.4%, in line with 2024's observed percentage. This would be a 3.8% decline in wheat production from 2024 if accurate. Breaking it down by wheat category, analysts are expecting 1.33 bb of winter wheat, comprised of 758 mb of hard red, 341 mb of soft red and 234 mb of white wheat. If this is the case, all categories would show yearly declines. As for ending stocks of wheat, the expectation is that 2025-26 will show steady stocks compared to 2024-25, with the average trade guess calling for 848 mb of U.S. ending stocks.

On the world stage, old-crop wheat stocks are expected to hold steady. Meanwhile, new-crop world estimates will be a popular talking point amongst traders given dry growing conditions in many key wheat areas around the globe. The Dow Jones survey has analysts on average calling for a drawdown in world wheat stocks next year to 259.8 mmt from 260.7 mmt this year. Countries to keep an eye on in Monday's report include Russia, where recent rainfall has been very welcome following a very dry conclusion to 2024 and start to 2025 for the winter wheat crop. Also noteworthy is the dry conditions in China, the world's largest wheat producer. China's fundamental situation will be interesting to monitor considering the sizeable drop in imports through the past marketing year, as China has shifted to reliance on domestic stocks.

Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Monday, May 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Monday's May WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

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Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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