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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/28 10:46

   Corn, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 12 to 13 cents lower; wheat futures are 17 to 23 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 12 to 13 cents lower; wheat futures are 17 to 23 cents higher. The U.S. 
stock market is firmer with the DOW up 275 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 
points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mostly firmer 
with crude up 2.60. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are firmer with 
gold $26.00 higher.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light, two-sided action 
once again. Trade is grinding along at the lower end of the range with outside 
markets and harvest results to continue to provide the main influences. 
Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal 
temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along. The export 
wire will need to show more life soon with nothing to start the week and 
sliding world freight values. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with 
softer driving demand with the weekly report showing production down 46,000 
barrels per day (bpd) and with stocks 190,000 barrels higher. Basis will be 
watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how 
aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest 
with notable strength already. On the December chart, trade is just below the 
20-day moving average at $6.77 with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.57 as 
support.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 12 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade fading back 
through the $14.00 area as demand concerns, harvest, and good South American 
movement and planting progress keep pressure high. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 
lower, and oil is 150 to 160 points lower. South America has early planting 
underway with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. The 
stronger dollar is potentially pushing that further out with Brazil in better 
shape than Argentina early on, although Argentina has aggressively moved last 
year's soybeans in recent days. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest 
footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into 
the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into 
October. The daily wire has been quiet recently, increasing demand concerns. On 
the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.32, 
which we closed below Friday at resistance, with the lower Bollinger band at 
$13.68 as support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 17 to 23 cents higher at midday with trade working back 
toward the middle of the recent range as it shakes off the strong dollar and 
continues to wait for planting progress and shipping progress out of the 
Northern Hemisphere. The Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains 
fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward with spring harvest likely 
wrapped up. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with some light 
buying Wednesday morning. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day 
moving average at $9.26, and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.87 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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