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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/05 10:55

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
4 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 10 to 12 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
4 to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher. The U.S. 
stock market is mixed with the S&P up 10 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat. 
Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude .80 higher and 
natural gas up .10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up 5.00.


   Corn futures are 10 to 12 cents lower up front with spreads softer as new 
crop fades from the highs, off 3 to 4 cents. Trade is watching forecasts and 
outside markets as early spillover strength eases at midday. Ethanol margins 
should be steady with corn holding the range, and unleaded extending recent 
gains, although they have backed off the overnight highs. The daily wire will 
likely remain quiet in the short term. Weekly export inspections remained solid 
at 1.181 million metric tons (mmt). Basis continues to hold a softer tone with 
better movement possibilities as fieldwork wraps up with most rains expected to 
stay in the Western Corn Belt in the short term. The second crop in Brazil 
continues toward the home stretch with some recent rains, but drier seasonal 
tone in place overall. Weekly crop progress should show planting effectively 
complete, emergence ahead of the 5-year average, and conditions steady to 
slightly lower Monday afternoon. On the July chart we have support at the 
20-day moving average at $5.86 with momentum fading at the $6.10 area again 
Monday morning.


   Soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower with trade fading back from the 
overnight test of support. Oil is leading products lower and expected weather 
improvement in the U.S. is weighing on the market. Meal is narrowly mixed and 
oil is 60 to 80 points lower. Weekly inspections are in line seasonally at 
214,247 metric tons (mt). Basis will likely remain a little softer with more 
buyers rolling to the back months. Planting should be on the homestretch 
nationally with the east remaining drier. The weekly crop progress number are 
likely to show planting and emergence solidly above the 5-year average, with 
first conditions on the low end of the last five years, just as corn started 
last week. July chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $12.67 which we 
bounced off last week with the 20-day moving average at $13.56 tested overnight 
before we pulled back.


   Wheat futures are 2 cents lower to 5 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis 
action leading. We are drawing closer to the ramp up of harvest for the Plains. 
Spring wheat is seeing warmer short-term temps along with drier short-term 
Black Sea action. There is more grain corridor talk and Ukraine is reportedly 
taking the initiative in the war. Plains rains are expected to continue but the 
potential for improvement for this year's crop is limited. SRW and spring wheat 
areas should move along development-wise with slightly better conditions 
expected on the weekly progress report. Heading remains in line with average 
and spring wheat is likely to be caught up to the 5-year average on planting 
and emergence. The dollar is just off the recent highs, with Matif wheat just a 
touch higher to start the week. Weekly export inspections softened a little at 
291,559 mt. On the KC July chart, the lower Bollinger band at $7.62 is support 
with $8.00 becoming the first level of support, which we closed solidly above 
Friday with the 20-day moving average above the market at $8.38.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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